What India, Australia and South Africa need to do to qualify for the World Test Championship final

What India, Australia and South Africa need to do to qualify for the World Test Championship final

As the 2021-23 World Test Championship cycle nears its final stage, here’s a look at each team and their prospects for qualifying for the finals.

After these two defeats against Englanddoes Pakistan have a chance to qualify for the WTC final?

The two home defeats seriously dented Pakistan’s hopes of qualifying for the final. With just three Tests remaining in this cycle (one against England in Karachi and two home games against New Zealand), the maximum they can finish on is 54.76%. It is very likely that at least two teams will finish with higher percentages.

For example, Australia, currently table top on 75%, only need 20 points from their remaining seven tests to ensure they end up being above 54.76; they can get those points with a win and two draws. India, who are at 52.08% with six Tests to go, need 44 more points, which they can get with three wins and two draws.

South Africa, currently second on the WTC table at 60%, need an additional 28 points (two wins and one draw) from their remaining five Tests to stay above Pakistan. Sri Lanka have a tough New Zealand mission ahead, but a 1-0 series win will see them finish with a better percentage at 54.76.

It is highly likely that at least two of these four teams will get the points needed to eliminate Pakistan.

What must India do to ensure qualification?
India are currently fourth on the points table, but if they win each of their remaining six Tests – two against Bangladesh and four against Australia – their percentage will rise to 68.06, which will surely be enough to qualify. in the top two (Australia’s numbers will drop if they lose four to India).

If India finish with a 5-1 win-loss record, their percentage will still be 62.5, which will keep them in contention. However, if they lose two, their percentage will drop to 56.94, leaving them to rely on other results.

Are Australia already qualified?
Australia are comfortably top of the table at 75%, but they still have work to do before they are certain of qualifying: if they lose each of their seven remaining matches in this cycle, their percentage will drop to 47.37. .

That said, Australia have an opportunity to seal their qualification before embarking on what could be a potentially difficult tour of India: if they win all three home Tests against South Africa, they will finish with a percentage minimum of 63.16 even if she loses. all four against India. This will secure a top two spot as only India can finish higher.

What are South Africa’s chances of qualifying?
South Africa are currently second in the points table, with two sets to play – three Tests in Australia and two at home to the West Indies next year. If they win their home tests but lose all of their away tests, they will fall to 53.33. Therefore, they need at least one win in Australia: a 1-2 series loss followed by a 2-0 series victory will take them to 60%, which will keep them in contention.

Is Sri Lanka still part of it?
Sri Lanka are currently at 53.33 per cent, with just two away tests in New Zealand in this cycle. If they win both, their score will increase to 61.11; if the series ends 1-1, it will drop slightly to 52.78. Thus, they will likely need two wins to stay in contention.

What about England, the West Indies, New Zealand?

Despite England’s fantastic run under Ben Stokes, with eight wins in his last nine Tests, England are out of contention. They only have one test left in the current cycle, and even if they win it, they will finish at 46.97%. That’s because they’ve had a miserable first half of the campaign: in their first 12 Tests this cycle, they’ve lost seven, drawn four and won just one.

West Indies can finish with a maximum of 50%, while New Zealand can go up to 48.72% if they win their last four Tests.

S Rajesh is ESPNcricinfo’s stats editor. @rajeshstats

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