Best and worst case scenarios for British teams in the Champions League group stage draw

The line-up of the 32 teams for this season’s Champions League group stage is almost complete, with the last three places up for grabs in Wednesday night’s play-off second leg.

Once these fixtures – Dinamo Zagreb v Bodo/Glimt, Trabzonspor v Copenhagen, PSV v Rangers – have been completed, the group stage draw will take place at 17:00 BST on Thursday 25 August.

As always, clubs will be split into four pots of eight and one team from each pot will go into the groups labeled A through H. Two teams from the same country cannot play each other and no more than two teams from one same nation can play on the same night.

Pot 1 is made up of Champions League holders, Europa League holders and the champions of the six best countries in the association according to their UEFA coefficients. Pots 2, 3 and 4 contain the remaining teams, ranked in order of their UEFA ranking.

sports mail examines the best and worst case scenarios for all British parties involved…

Manchester City

Best Screenplay: RB Leipzig, Sporting Lisbon, Maccabi Haifa

Worst case scenario: Barcelona, ​​Inter Milan, Marseille

As Premier League champions, Manchester City are in Pot 1 and therefore avoid many of Europe’s biggest teams such as Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and PSG.

But with the other three English sides all in Pot 2, it narrows the options Pep Guardiola’s side could face – they’re sure to come up against one of Barcelona, ​​Juventus, Atletico Madrid, Sevilla or RB Leipzig.

Barcelona are surely the most intimidating of these clubs after their summer spending spree, with the likes of Robert Lewandowski, Raphinha and Jules Kounde arriving at Camp Nou. They also have a point to prove after being knocked out of the Champions League group stages last season.

In terms of UEFA coefficient, RB Leipzig are the lowest-ranked team in the pot apart from Tottenham, so the German side – who finished third in City’s group last season – look like the best team to get.

In Pot 3, Inter Milan – who have Romelu Lukaku back in attack – are to be avoided, while Borussia Dortmund have been weakened by the departure of Erling Haaland but will still provide a stern test. Sporting Lisbon appear to be the most favorable draw as last season was the first time they came out of the group stages for 13 years.

City will like their chances against any team in Pot 4, although Marseille are perhaps the toughest opponent. They finished second in Ligue 1 last season, own Arkadiusz Milik and Dimitri Payet in attack and have spent over £60m this summer.

Israeli side Maccabi Haifa, appearing in the group stage for the first time since 2009, would be the best option but also a long journey.

liverpool

Best Screenplay: Eintracht Frankfurt, Sporting Lisbon, Maccabi Haifa

Worst case scenario: Real Madrid, Inter Milan, Marseille

With Liverpool in Pot 2, we could have a repeat of last season’s Champions League final in the group stage if they are drawn against Real Madrid. The Reds haven’t won any of their last seven games against Los Blancos so they won’t be too keen to face them again.

Eintracht Frankfurt are in pot 1 having won the Europa League last season so shouldn’t be underestimated, but they finished 11th in the Bundesliga and look a bit out of place among some European heavyweights in their first season in this competition since 1960. This makes them the best option.

Jurgen Klopp’s former Dortmund charges are to be avoided in Pot 3, with an Inter Milan side winning at Anfield last season. A meeting with Sporting would favor Liverpool, while Bayer Leverkusen are the lowest-seeded side but could not be drawn into the same group as Frankfurt.

In Pot 4, the Reds have won just once in six games against Celtic and a first encounter since 2003 would provide an electric atmosphere for both Anfield and Parkhead. That said, Ange Postecoglou’s men are perhaps a team to avoid with Marseille, even if the trip is short. Maccabi Haifa is again the dream ticket – or Viktoria Plzen.

chelsea

Best Screenplay: Eintracht Frankfurt, Sporting Lisbon, Maccabi Haifa

Worst case scenario: Real Madrid, Inter Milan, Marseille

Chelsea face the same options as Liverpool and will be equally desperate to avoid clashes with Real Madrid, Bayern Munich or PSG.

Again, Eintracht Frankfurt – who the Blues beat on penalties in the 2019 Europa League semi-finals – look to be the easiest encounter in Pot 1, but Thomas Tuchel’s side should also be keen of his chances against Porto and Ajax.

Unlike in the Premier League, players on loan can play against their parent club in the Champions League, so Chelsea will surely want to avoid Inter Milan in Pot 3 to rule out the risk of Romelu Lukaku scoring against them. A short trip to Lisbon or Leverkusen would suit the Blues perfectly.

The west London club won 4-0 home and away the last time they faced an Israeli side in the group stage – Maccabi Tel Aviv in 2015 – so they’ll be liking their chances. he gets Maccabi Haifa in pot 4. Conversely, they lost on their two previous trips to Marseille so it’s a tie to avoid.

Tottenham

Best Screenplay: Eintracht Frankfurt, Sporting Lisbon, Maccabi Haifa

Worst case scenario: Real Madrid, Inter Milan, Marseille

Tottenham are the lowest-ranked English team and the lowest-ranked team in Pot 2, so this could be the ‘best case scenario’ for many overseas clubs despite their encouraging start to the season.

Spurs themselves will be keen on Pot 1’s Eintracht Frankfurt, but could also be keen for a first meeting with Ajax since their dramatic Champions League semi-final against the Netherlands in 2019. They won’t have won only once in six meetings against Real Madrid and Bayern Munich without surprise. they will want to avoid these clubs.

Former Tottenham prospect Marcus Edwards now plays for Sporting but is unlikely to cause Antonio Conte’s side too many problems if they are taken out of Pot 3. Inter Milan would evoke memories of Gareth Bale’s hat-trick at the San Siro in 2010, but Spurs lost that game and could struggle against the Nerazzurri again.

A hat-trick that helped Spurs win was Harry Kane’s hat-trick in a 7-2 thrashing of Maccabi Haifa in 2020 Europa League qualifying, so they would be keen to face the side again Israeli.

A worst-case encounter with Pot 4 Marseille would see them come up against former Arsenal trio Matteo Guendouzi, Nuno Tavares and Alexis Sanchez.

Celtic/Rangers

Best Screenplay: Ajax, RB Leipzig, Sporting Lisbon

Worst case scenario: Real Madrid, Liverpool, Inter Milan

There is Scottish representation in the group stages for the first time since 2013, with reigning domestic champions Celtic assured of a place and Rangers expected to overtake PSV in the play-offs tonight. They are both in Pot 4 so face a potentially tricky group.

While Eintracht Frankfurt – who beat Rangers in the Europa League final last season – are probably the easiest option in Pot 1, we’ve gone with Ajax as the optimal scenario so that a meeting with RB Leipzig – which Gers beat in the semi-finals – from pot 2 is possible. Pot 3’s Sporting Lisbon would complete a group that would be the easiest to get out of.

There are all sorts of nightmarish draws the two Glasgow clubs could face, but last season’s Champions League finalists Real Madrid and Liverpool, as well as an Inter Milan side who finished first or second in Serie A in the last three years, is surely the worst of the possibilities.