14/7/2022 Horse racing tips and best bets – Grafton, Grafton Cup day

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The Grafton Cup carnival reaches its peak on Thursday when it is Grafton Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is in true position throughout the circuit.

Grafton Cup ?: See the pitch and odds for the Grafton Cup

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back to me

I am with 9 Horowitz (Bet now: $4.60) in the door opener. Formerly with Ed O’Rourke, he now finds himself with David Joice in Murwillumbah and I think there is an intention here for a first assault. He looked strong in a few 1000m trials at the home track, he finds gate one and the team finds Tommy Berry. I think he will lead throughout.

Danger

Magnum 6 stars (Bet now: $4.20) looks at the main threat. Matty Dunn trained a gelding that took over 1000m at Eagle Farm where he burned gas tickets early to find a front spot and fought quite late when he was third at Zumikon. Fitter, and if he can pick up speed without doing too much work, he’ll take some hits with running below the belt.

Long shot

5 in one step (Bet now: $9.00) rarely makes a bad run at Grafton and has early speed, so she inspires respect. She ran into the Wauchope Sprint at Port Macquarie last time out and kicked solid but was caught late by The Drake, who wanders into the Sir James Kirby. The last bit will test, but she’s honest.

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7 Aquarius (Bet now: $5.50) looks like one of the best bets on the card. Matty Dunn trained a three-year-old who picked up at Muwillumbah and he chased speed heavily when second at Controlocacy, with a gap at third, holding the rest. Fitter, ideal card, good form… everything shows.

Danger

8 galbalans (Bet now: $6.00) is a son of Artie Schiller for Tony Newing who takes over and he is a trainer who likes to target this Carnival. He hasn’t raced since May 6 at Armidale when he was third after being held up on the fence. Didn’t have too much of a break so watch the market.

Long shot

2 flying deputy (Bet now: $7.00) may be a disagreeing enhancer. He picked up over 1200m at Doomben where he was at speed and kicked solid but was beaten shortly after the turnaround and ended up on the trail. Wear one, can see him hold a front seat and run an improved race.

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Race in two but following the path of the race 6 Wiri Field (Bet now: $7.50). She ran over 1400m in Newcastle last time out and tried her guts, but came across a Stakes class horse of the future, Frumos, with a huge gap to third. If you trust this form, which I do, then it’s clearly the one to beat.

Danger

9 Insects (Bet now: $3.80) is a son of Real Impact for John O’Shea who takes over. This guy hasn’t raced since March 17 at Newcastle where he was far from disgraced in a loss behind a city class animal at Whodat. I was given a good break and I think he closed pretty well in a trial at Hawkesbury and got Bowman. First chance.

Long shot

7 Karaoke King (Bet now: $6.00) did little harm this time for Matty Smith. Strong first winner twice at Scone before heading to Taree where she came back in the race and continued strong when second behind Klopp. Hopefully the inner gate is used to his advantage, and if so, he’ll be around the mark.

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3 The Pines (Bet now: $7.50) at the top for me. Mare trained by the Edmonds team who had two return points after a break. Wasn’t too badly fresh at the Sunny Coast behind Roman Aureus before going to the Gold Coast where she was brought back from the wide gate and made up ground without threatening but made some good late lunges. I hope the inside gate is used and this is another stable that rarely misfires when it comes to Grafton.

Danger

5 Soffika (Bet now: $6.50) should be monitored. Ex-English mare making her Australian debut for Team Freedman. His form over there was just a little plain, but you have to respect those imports, and I thought his trials leading up to it were encouraging.

Long shot

1400m is the request with 2 Tara Jasmine (Bet now: $4.00) but her Grafton record keeps her in the mix. 6/6 on the track and back to John Shelton after racing in Brisbane with the O’Dea/Hoysted camp. She was heading for the Ramornie but the rain changed those plans and instead runs here at 1400m, where the trip is a question. Include it in Exotics.

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1200m does not seem to be a problem for 1 Durnstein (Bet now: $3.10) and it was hard not to be impressed with his first 1000m victory here, where he led throughout and gave them an absolute spanking. The knock is that this Carnvial, in speed/fencing in the race, was gold, so was he flattered? Maybe, but I think it can measure up, sit on speed, and prove hard to exhaust.

Danger

3 Fashion legend (Bet now: $7.00) commands respect with Blinkers for the first time after the first run, which took place at the Kenso track in Randwick where he failed to hit the green on the straight and should have finished closer when he was fourth in Contemporary. Cards ideally and brings a strong form line.

Long shot

9 deep opinions (Bet now: $10.00) is looking for a filly with talent for Damien Lane. Market was with the teammate when she made her Coonamble debut. At the start of the straight she looked like she was struggling, but as soon as you had that thought she leapt up and unleashed the line to win impressively. Won a test impressively on wet ground before, so I think she’s in with a shout here.

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When in doubt go for the best driver and T Berry is here so up is 5 Up Trumpz (Bet now: $10.00), which covers for Joe Cleary. He hasn’t raced since the National Sprint during Canberra Carnival where he was back almost last in the race and had no hope of the way the track played this Carnival. Seemed to move well in a recent test and it will be very late.

Danger

9 Parkville (Bet now: $2.90) could easily blow this field up if he’s willing to rock and roll. Brett Dodson is training this gelding, which is the first, and the fact that he is the first here, in a strong race, tells me that there is intent and that he is one of many horses that are on the showcase for a place in Kosciuszko. His test was electric, track/distance winner, he will jump on the rabbit and will be difficult to catch.

Long shot

1 Ahead of its time (Bet now: $10.00) is a Trevor Hardy-trained sprinter who picks up and wouldn’t have looked out of place as a slight chance from Ramornie. He hasn’t raced since May 7 at the Gold Coast on Hollindale Day when he returned and closed well behind Seleque. Resumes without trying, but can sprint well fresh and cards to do no work.

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8 Rebel Rama (Bet now: $7.00) at the top for me. Marc Conners trained a mare who comes in after a Tatts Gold Crown victory where Tommy showed initiative, taking control up front and timing the button press to perfection. 2350m is a question, but I anticipate the speed/fence will be where it leads and will be hard to come down with sticky Tommy.

Danger

1 quarter (Bet now: $6.50) sneakily steals for John O’Shea. He was massive in the Ipswich Cup and I think you could easily argue that if he was outside rather than inside he wins the race instead of a close sixth, that which shows how bad the inside section was. He’s got class, he gets Bowman and the team shoots.

Long shot

10 Daring Competitor (Bet now: $31.00) is the most improved horse in this part of the world. Three starts ago, he won a very moderate B50 before winning a B66, then backed those up with a dominating victory in the Grafton Cup Prelude. This form reference has come in handy over the years, it has Ben Looker on the track, who rides better than anyone on the track, so while I doubt he’ll win, he’s a must for multiples.

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4 Stoic (Bet now: $10.00) seems to thrive running on the cool side, so I’m in his corner. He hasn’t raced since early June when he was far from disgraced in the Lightning at Eagle Farm behind Boomnova. He is a fresh horse and in a fast 1000m race he can be seen sitting out of gear and throwing late.

Danger

8 Ice cream in Vancouver (Bet now: $3.00) is a speed demon for Cody Morgan who is a 1000m specialist who has sustained speed as seen in the last start in Gunnedah where he led all the way and spanked them in record time . The last bit will test, but if you back it up, it will give almighty sight.

Long shot

13 The Drake (Bet now: $16.00) will be strong in the end for Jenny Graham’s camp. He found his winning form on the last start at his home track in Port Macquarie, sitting out before widening and finishing best to win in impressive fashion. He won’t do any work and a win wouldn’t be entirely shocking.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 7 Aquarius

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 1 Durnstein

LENGTH STRIKE: Race Four Number 3 The Pines

Quaddie Tips (Five to Eight Races):

First stage : 1, 3

Second step : 1, 5, 8, 9

Third step : 1, 2, 8, 10

Fourth step: 1, 4, 6, 8, 13

Investment of $50 = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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